Source: Site News, Philip Herold, 2026-10-15 (GUID news-3216568). Secondary-source analysis; no new primary filings.

Core thesis: Data centers build in ~18 months; turbines take 5+ years. The PPA must state who pays if equipment is late, not just price per MWh.

Cited market data (third-party, not verified by wiki):

• GE Vernova heavy-duty gas turbine backlog: 116 GW, slots toward 2031 (Energy News Beat, 25 Aug 2026)
• Gas generation lead times 5-7 years (Bricks & Bytes); transformers >50 MVA 128-160 weeks
• US interconnection waits 5-6 years (Enverus). Brazil large-load timeline NOT confirmed; verify with distributor and ONS.

LRCAP evidence: Mercurio Partners bought R$590M of generators within a R$1.5B thermal investment (Canal Solar, 21 Jul 2026). Reservation payments, delivery dates and penalties are undisclosed; treat as diligence items. See news-3216090 for homologation. ANEEL has moved to strict COD enforcement (see news-3215999, news-3215980).

Turbine vs reciprocating: Engines are modular, can be phased and offer N+1/N+2 redundancy. Engine lead times and R$/kW are unsourced and flagged for OEM quotes; do not use in models. Hybrid (engines as bridge, turbine for baseload) proposed. Related: news-3216048 (Wärtsilä engines).

Term-sheet clauses: (1) slot evidence before NTP, incl. transformers/VFDs; (2) COD-linked LDs separating OEM delay from IPP delay; (3) bridge power rights, with ownership pre-agreed (Siemens SGT-400 case cited); (4) lender protections: guarantees, step-in rights, equipment-milestone CPs. Brazilian lender pricing of this risk is undocumented.

Risk split: OEM delay to IPP (backed by OEM guarantees); offtaker-caused delay to data center.

Context: Ties to the 24-month window in news-3215957. Contains P&L Energy advisory CTA and newsletter subscribe prompt.